Consumer Confidence Index vs Core CPI (Excluding Food & Energy)

How These Two Indicators Relate

Consumer Confidence sits in the consumer category and Core CPI sits in the inflation category, so they describe different parts of the same economy. Watching them together provides cross-checks: a coordinated move in both directions confirms a regime shift, while a divergence often reveals which sector of the economy is leading or lagging.

The two indicators are currently moving in opposite directions. Consumer Confidence has moved lower -5.40 from the prior reading, while Core CPI has moved higher +0.3%. Divergent moves on related indicators usually flag a regime shift in progress — one of the two is leading and the other is lagging.

What Consumer Confidence Index Measures

The Consumer Confidence Index measures how optimistic or pessimistic consumers are about the economy and their personal financial situation. It is based on a monthly survey of 5,000 U.S. households by The Conference Board.

Consumer confidence has dropped to 92.9 — the lowest in over a year and the fourth consecutive monthly decline. Readings below 100 indicate more pessimism than optimism. For executives, declining confidence is a leading indicator of reduced consumer spending. When consumers feel less confident, they delay major purchases (cars, appliances, vacations), increase savings rates, and become more price-sensitive. Retailers and consumer-facing businesses should prepare for softer demand.

Methodology: The Conference Board surveys 5,000 households monthly, asking about current business conditions, current employment conditions, expected business conditions in 6 months, expected employment in 6 months, and expected total family income in 6 months. The index is benchmarked to 1985 = 100. Source: The Conference Board (series CONCCONF).

What Core CPI (Excluding Food & Energy) Measures

Core CPI measures consumer price changes excluding food and energy, which are volatile and often driven by supply factors rather than monetary policy. It is the Fed's preferred gauge of underlying inflation trends.

Core CPI at 3.1% shows that underlying inflation remains sticky above the Fed's 2% target. Housing costs and services inflation are the primary culprits. For executives, sticky core inflation means the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates soon, keeping borrowing costs elevated. Budget planners should assume inflation-adjusted cost increases of 3%+ for services, labor, and real estate.

Methodology: Core CPI uses the same methodology as headline CPI but excludes the food and energy components of the basket. This removes about 22% of the index weight. Shelter costs (rent and owners' equivalent rent) are the largest component of core CPI at roughly 44% of the core basket. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (series CPILFESL).

How These Comparisons Are Built

Each pairwise comparison page is statically generated from the live indicator dataset — values, trends, and source links are pre-rendered into HTML at build time. When the underlying dataset refreshes (each indicator on its own publication schedule), the comparison page regenerates automatically. ExecBolt does not estimate, model, or interpolate any reading; every value comes from the publishing agency’s primary release. For the full sourcing approach, citation format, and known limitations, see the methodology page.

For plain-language guides to the concepts behind Consumer Confidence and Core CPI, see the learn library. For tools that translate macro readings into business outputs (DCF, runway, break-even), see the calculators page. Authoritative external context comes from the Federal Reserve’s FRED database, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the SEC EDGAR system.

Frequently Asked Questions