Personal Consumption Expenditures (Monthly Change) vs 2-Year Treasury Yield
Personal Consumption Expenditures (Monthly Change) is currently 0.4% (up +0.6%). 2-Year Treasury Yield is currently 3.7% (down -0.3%).
| Metric | Personal Consumption Expenditures (Monthly Change) | 2-Year Treasury Yield |
|---|---|---|
| Current value | 0.4% | 3.7% |
| Previous reading | -0.2% | 3.99% |
| Change | +0.6% | -0.3% |
| Trend | up | down |
| Frequency | Monthly | Daily |
| Source | Bureau of Economic Analysis | U.S. Treasury |
| Last updated | 2026-03-28 | 2026-04-04 |
| Category | consumer | rates |
What Personal Consumption Expenditures (Monthly Change) measures
Personal Consumption Expenditures measures the monthly change in household spending on goods and services. Consumer spending represents approximately 70% of U.S. GDP, making it the single largest driver of economic activity.
Consumer spending rebounded 0.4% in March after a rare decline in February, suggesting the consumer remains resilient despite falling confidence. For executives, the discrepancy between weak confidence surveys and solid spending data is a puzzle worth watching — consumers may be expressing anxiety while still spending. If spending follows confidence lower, it would be a significant drag on GDP growth.
What 2-Year Treasury Yield measures
The 2-year Treasury yield reflects market expectations for short-term interest rates over the next two years. It is the most sensitive government bond to Federal Reserve policy changes.
The 2-year yield at 3.71% — well below the current fed funds rate of 4.50% — signals that markets expect the Fed to cut rates. The wider this gap, the more aggressively markets expect easing. For CFOs, short-term borrowing costs may decline sooner than long-term rates, favoring shorter-duration financing strategies.
Frequently asked
Personal Consumption Expenditures (Monthly Change) is currently 0.4%, up +0.6% from the previous reading. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, updated monthly.
2-Year Treasury Yield is currently 3.7%, down -0.3% from the previous reading. Source: U.S. Treasury, updated daily.
Consumer spending rebounded 0.4% in March after a rare decline in February, suggesting the consumer remains resilient despite falling confidence. For executives, the discrepancy between weak confidenc The 2-year yield at 3.71% — well below the current fed funds rate of 4.50% — signals that markets expect the Fed to cut rates. The wider this gap, the more aggressively markets expect easing. For CFOs