Continuing Jobless Claims vs Core CPI (Excluding Food & Energy)

What Continuing Jobless Claims measures

Continuing jobless claims count the number of people receiving unemployment insurance benefits in a given week. Unlike initial claims (which show new layoffs), continuing claims show how long people remain unemployed.

Continuing claims at 1.9 million have been gradually rising, suggesting that while layoffs are low, it's taking longer for unemployed workers to find new jobs. This is a subtle deterioration in the labor market that the headline unemployment rate doesn't fully capture. For executives, this signals that hiring is becoming more selective — companies are filling roles but being choosier.

What Core CPI (Excluding Food & Energy) measures

Core CPI measures consumer price changes excluding food and energy, which are volatile and often driven by supply factors rather than monetary policy. It is the Fed's preferred gauge of underlying inflation trends.

Core CPI at 3.1% shows that underlying inflation remains sticky above the Fed's 2% target. Housing costs and services inflation are the primary culprits. For executives, sticky core inflation means the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates soon, keeping borrowing costs elevated. Budget planners should assume inflation-adjusted cost increases of 3%+ for services, labor, and real estate.

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