M2 Money Supply (Year-over-Year Change) vs 2-Year Treasury Yield
M2 Money Supply (Year-over-Year Change) is currently 3.9% (up +0.2%). 2-Year Treasury Yield is currently 3.7% (down -0.3%).
| Metric | M2 Money Supply (Year-over-Year Change) | 2-Year Treasury Yield |
|---|---|---|
| Current value | 3.9% | 3.7% |
| Previous reading | 3.7% | 3.99% |
| Change | +0.2% | -0.3% |
| Trend | up | down |
| Frequency | Monthly | Daily |
| Source | Federal Reserve | U.S. Treasury |
| Last updated | 2026-03-25 | 2026-04-04 |
| Category | money | rates |
What M2 Money Supply (Year-over-Year Change) measures
M2 is a measure of the money supply that includes cash, checking deposits, savings deposits, money market funds, and small time deposits. Year-over-year changes in M2 are a leading indicator of inflation and economic activity.
M2 growth has recovered to 3.9% year-over-year after an unprecedented contraction in 2023 (the first in modern history). The normalization of money supply growth supports economic activity without being excessively inflationary. For executives, moderate M2 growth (3-5%) is consistent with a healthy economy — it means enough liquidity to support business activity without fueling the kind of excess that drove 2021-2022 inflation.
What 2-Year Treasury Yield measures
The 2-year Treasury yield reflects market expectations for short-term interest rates over the next two years. It is the most sensitive government bond to Federal Reserve policy changes.
The 2-year yield at 3.71% — well below the current fed funds rate of 4.50% — signals that markets expect the Fed to cut rates. The wider this gap, the more aggressively markets expect easing. For CFOs, short-term borrowing costs may decline sooner than long-term rates, favoring shorter-duration financing strategies.
Frequently asked
M2 Money Supply (Year-over-Year Change) is currently 3.9%, up +0.2% from the previous reading. Source: Federal Reserve, updated monthly.
2-Year Treasury Yield is currently 3.7%, down -0.3% from the previous reading. Source: U.S. Treasury, updated daily.
M2 growth has recovered to 3.9% year-over-year after an unprecedented contraction in 2023 (the first in modern history). The normalization of money supply growth supports economic activity without bei The 2-year yield at 3.71% — well below the current fed funds rate of 4.50% — signals that markets expect the Fed to cut rates. The wider this gap, the more aggressively markets expect easing. For CFOs