PCE Price Index (Year-over-Year) vs 2-Year Treasury Yield
PCE Price Index (Year-over-Year) is currently 2.5% (down -0.1%). 2-Year Treasury Yield is currently 3.7% (down -0.3%).
| Metric | PCE Price Index (Year-over-Year) | 2-Year Treasury Yield |
|---|---|---|
| Current value | 2.5% | 3.7% |
| Previous reading | 2.6% | 3.99% |
| Change | -0.1% | -0.3% |
| Trend | down | down |
| Frequency | Monthly | Daily |
| Source | Bureau of Economic Analysis | U.S. Treasury |
| Last updated | 2026-03-28 | 2026-04-04 |
| Category | inflation | rates |
What PCE Price Index (Year-over-Year) measures
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure. It tracks prices of goods and services consumed by households and adjusts its basket dynamically as consumers shift spending patterns.
PCE at 2.5% is closer to the Fed's 2% target than CPI, giving the Fed more room to consider rate cuts. The PCE tends to run 0.3-0.5 points below CPI because it accounts for consumer substitution (switching to cheaper alternatives when prices rise). For executives, the PCE trajectory suggests inflation is on a downward path, which should eventually lead to lower borrowing costs.
What 2-Year Treasury Yield measures
The 2-year Treasury yield reflects market expectations for short-term interest rates over the next two years. It is the most sensitive government bond to Federal Reserve policy changes.
The 2-year yield at 3.71% — well below the current fed funds rate of 4.50% — signals that markets expect the Fed to cut rates. The wider this gap, the more aggressively markets expect easing. For CFOs, short-term borrowing costs may decline sooner than long-term rates, favoring shorter-duration financing strategies.
Frequently asked
PCE Price Index (Year-over-Year) is currently 2.5%, down -0.1% from the previous reading. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, updated monthly.
2-Year Treasury Yield is currently 3.7%, down -0.3% from the previous reading. Source: U.S. Treasury, updated daily.
PCE at 2.5% is closer to the Fed's 2% target than CPI, giving the Fed more room to consider rate cuts. The PCE tends to run 0.3-0.5 points below CPI because it accounts for consumer substitution (swit The 2-year yield at 3.71% — well below the current fed funds rate of 4.50% — signals that markets expect the Fed to cut rates. The wider this gap, the more aggressively markets expect easing. For CFOs