U.S. Trade Balance (Goods & Services) vs 2-Year Treasury Yield
U.S. Trade Balance (Goods & Services) is currently -122.7B (up +8.0B). 2-Year Treasury Yield is currently 3.7% (down -0.3%).
| Metric | U.S. Trade Balance (Goods & Services) | 2-Year Treasury Yield |
|---|---|---|
| Current value | -122.7B | 3.7% |
| Previous reading | -130.7B | 3.99% |
| Change | +8.0B | -0.3% |
| Trend | up | down |
| Frequency | Monthly | Daily |
| Source | Bureau of Economic Analysis | U.S. Treasury |
| Last updated | 2026-03-06 | 2026-04-04 |
| Category | trade | rates |
What U.S. Trade Balance (Goods & Services) measures
The trade balance measures the difference between U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. A deficit means the U.S. imports more than it exports. The trade balance is a component of GDP and reflects the competitiveness of U.S. producers in global markets.
The trade deficit narrowed slightly to $122.7 billion from January's $130.7 billion. The historically large deficit has been inflated by front-loading of imports ahead of tariff increases. For executives in import-dependent industries, trade policy remains the dominant risk factor. Companies are accelerating supply chain diversification away from China toward Mexico, Vietnam, and India.
What 2-Year Treasury Yield measures
The 2-year Treasury yield reflects market expectations for short-term interest rates over the next two years. It is the most sensitive government bond to Federal Reserve policy changes.
The 2-year yield at 3.71% — well below the current fed funds rate of 4.50% — signals that markets expect the Fed to cut rates. The wider this gap, the more aggressively markets expect easing. For CFOs, short-term borrowing costs may decline sooner than long-term rates, favoring shorter-duration financing strategies.
Frequently asked
U.S. Trade Balance (Goods & Services) is currently -122.7B, up +8.0B from the previous reading. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, updated monthly.
2-Year Treasury Yield is currently 3.7%, down -0.3% from the previous reading. Source: U.S. Treasury, updated daily.
The trade deficit narrowed slightly to $122.7 billion from January's $130.7 billion. The historically large deficit has been inflated by front-loading of imports ahead of tariff increases. For executi The 2-year yield at 3.71% — well below the current fed funds rate of 4.50% — signals that markets expect the Fed to cut rates. The wider this gap, the more aggressively markets expect easing. For CFOs