Nonfarm Payrolls

In Depth

Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) is the headline figure from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report and represents the net change in the number of jobs in the U.S. economy, excluding agricultural workers. The figure is derived from the establishment survey, which samples approximately 670,000 worksites covering about one-third of all nonfarm payroll workers. Economists typically expect payroll growth of 150,000 to 250,000 per month during a healthy expansion, with anything below 100,000 raising concerns about economic weakness. The NFP figure is subject to significant revisions: the first estimate is released on the first Friday of the month, revised the following month, and revised again the month after that. Annual benchmark revisions can adjust the full year's data by hundreds of thousands of jobs. Markets react intensely to the NFP release, bond yields, stock indices, and currency pairs can move sharply within seconds of the announcement. The report breaks down job creation by sector (manufacturing, services, healthcare, government, etc.), providing granular insight into where the economy is adding or shedding jobs. For business leaders, persistent strength or weakness in payrolls for their sector signals competitive labor conditions and potential wage pressure.