Employment Indicator
Average Hourly Earnings Growth
Updated 2026-04-04 · Monthly · Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics · Next release: 2026-05-02
Historical Trend
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 3.8% |
| 2026-02 | 4.0% |
| 2026-01 | 4.1% |
| 2025-12 | 3.9% |
| 2025-11 | 4.0% |
| 2025-10 | 4.0% |
| 2025-09 | 4.0% |
| 2025-08 | 3.8% |
| 2025-07 | 3.6% |
What This Means for Business
Wage growth at 3.8% year-over-year outpaces current inflation, meaning workers are gaining real purchasing power. For executives, this signals continued pressure on labor budgets — compensation packages must grow to retain talent. However, wage growth moderating from 4%+ suggests the worst of the post-pandemic wage spiral may be easing.
About Wage Growth
Average hourly earnings measures the year-over-year percentage change in wages for all private-sector employees. It is a key indicator of labor cost pressures and consumer spending power.
Methodology
The BLS calculates average hourly earnings from its establishment survey, dividing total private payroll by total hours paid. The year-over-year change eliminates seasonal effects. It includes base pay but excludes benefits, bonuses, and employer-paid insurance.
Related Indicators
Frequently Asked Questions
Is current wage growth inflationary?
Wage growth above 3.5% can contribute to inflation if it exceeds productivity gains (typically 1-2% annually). However, wages are a lagging indicator — they rise after the labor market tightens, and fall slowly after it loosens. The Fed watches the Employment Cost Index (ECI) for a more comprehensive measure of labor cost pressures.
How do wages compare across industries?
Average hourly earnings vary significantly by sector. Information and financial services typically lead ($40-50/hour), while leisure/hospitality and retail lag ($18-22/hour). The aggregate figure masks these differences, so executives should track their specific industry's wage trends.