Updated May 2026 · Federal Reserve
Rates Indicator
Federal Funds Rate (Target Range Upper Bound)
Federal Funds Rate (Target Range Upper Bound) is a interest rate and yield indicator central to monetary policy and corporate borrowing sourced from Federal Reserve, updated as announced. Next release: 2026-05-07.
Historical Trend
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 4.5% |
| 2025-06 | 4.5% |
| 2025-05 | 4.5% |
| 2025-03 | 4.5% |
| 2025-01 | 4.5% |
| 2024-12 | 4.5% |
| 2024-11 | 4.8% |
| 2024-09 | 5.0% |
| 2024-07 | 5.5% |
Reading the Current Print
At 4.5%, the current reading sits in the lower portion of the recent historical range for this series. That is depressed relative to recent norms; the question for an operator is whether the soft reading reflects a near-term cyclical low or the start of a more persistent shift.
Fed Rate held essentially flat at 4.5% since the prior as announced release. Steady readings are diagnostically useful as a baseline against which the next release can be judged — and as evidence the underlying drivers are not yet shifting.
Publication cadence: As Announced. Update timing matters because higher-frequency series provide earlier reads on the cycle, while lower-frequency series provide cleaner signal with longer lag.
What This Means for Business
The Fed has held rates at 4.25-4.50% since December 2024, pausing after three cuts. For executives, this means borrowing costs remain elevated: corporate bond yields, commercial real estate financing, and revolving credit all price off the fed funds rate. The 'higher for longer' stance means capital-intensive projects need higher return hurdles. Companies with strong cash positions have an advantage over those reliant on debt financing.
For deeper context on how Fed Rate fits into the broader macro picture, see the learn library; for live cross-checks against related series, browse the full indicators dashboard; for tools that translate the reading into business outputs (DCF discount rates, runway projections), see the calculators page. Authoritative external context is available at the Federal Reserve’s FRED database, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the SEC EDGAR system for company-level filings.
About Fed Rate
The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight. Set by the Federal Reserve's FOMC, it is the most important interest rate in the world — influencing everything from mortgage rates to corporate borrowing costs to the value of the dollar.
Methodology
The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meets eight times per year to set the target range. The actual rate is maintained through open market operations — the Fed buys or sells Treasury securities to increase or decrease bank reserves, pushing the overnight lending rate toward the target.
The series is published by Federal Reserve under series identifier DFEDTARU. ExecBolt does not estimate, model, or interpolate this value — every reading on this page is pulled directly from the publishing agency’s primary release. For full sourcing and citation guidance, see the methodology page.
Related Indicators
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Federal Funds Rate (Target Range Upper Bound) right now?
Federal Funds Rate (Target Range Upper Bound) is currently 4.5%, flat 0.0% from the previous as announced reading. Source: Federal Reserve, series DFEDTARU, last updated 2026-03-19.
How is Fed Rate calculated?
The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meets eight times per year to set the target range. The actual rate is maintained through open market operations — the Fed buys or sells Treasury securities to increase or decrease bank reserves, pushing the overnight lending rate toward the target.
Where can I verify this number?
Federal Funds Rate (Target Range Upper Bound) is published by Federal Reserve. The primary release is available at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm; the Federal Reserve's FRED database hosts the historical series and provides API access for programmatic verification.
When will the Fed cut interest rates?
The Fed has signaled it needs to see sustained progress on inflation (toward the 2% target) before cutting rates. Markets currently price in 1-2 cuts in the second half of 2026, but the timing depends on inflation data, employment trends, and financial conditions. The Fed's dot plot (published quarterly) shows individual committee members' rate expectations.
How does the fed funds rate affect my business?
The fed funds rate affects businesses through multiple channels: 1) Direct borrowing costs — loans, credit lines, and bonds price off the fed rate. 2) Consumer spending — higher rates reduce mortgage demand, auto loans, and credit card spending. 3) Investment decisions — higher rates increase the cost of capital, making marginal projects uneconomic. 4) Currency — higher U.S. rates strengthen the dollar, affecting exporters and multinationals.
What is the neutral rate?
The neutral rate (r-star or r*) is the theoretical interest rate that neither stimulates nor restricts economic growth. Most Fed officials estimate it at 2.5-3.0%, meaning the current 4.50% rate is restrictive — deliberately slowing the economy to fight inflation. When the Fed eventually reaches neutral, monetary policy will no longer be a headwind.