What Is Consumer Price Index (CPI) — Year-over-Year?

3.9% sits in the upper portion of the recent historical range for CPI Inflation. Treat the reading as elevated rather than typical — sustained levels at this height usually have meaningful policy or business-cycle implications.

CPI Inflation has moved higher from 3.3% to 3.9% since the prior monthly release — a sharp move of +0.6%. Pair this with the related indicators below before drawing strong conclusions; isolated moves on a single release often look larger than they really are.

Inflation indicators describe how quickly prices are changing across the economy. They directly drive Federal Reserve policy and feed into wage negotiations, contract escalators, and corporate pricing. CPI is published by the BLS; PCE — the Fed’s preferred 2% target gauge — is published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The Consumer Price Index measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of goods and services. The year-over-year change is the most commonly cited measure of inflation.

Inflation at 2.8% remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target but has moderated significantly from the 2022 peak of 9.1%. For executives, this means input costs are still rising faster than the Fed's comfort zone, but the pricing environment is stabilizing. Companies with strong pricing power can pass through cost increases; those in competitive markets face margin pressure. The Fed is unlikely to cut rates aggressively until CPI moves closer to 2%.

The BLS tracks prices of approximately 80,000 items across 75 urban areas monthly. The CPI basket weights are based on the Consumer Expenditure Survey — housing (36%), transportation (16%), food (13%), and medical care (9%) are the largest components. Year-over-year change compares the current month's index to the same month one year prior.

ExecBolt does not estimate, model, or interpolate this value — every reading on this page is pulled directly from Bureau of Labor Statistics (series CPIAUCSL). For full sourcing standards and citation guidance, see the methodology page; for plain-language background on the underlying concept, see the learn library; for live cross-checks against related series, see the indicators dashboard.