Average Hourly Earnings Growth vs 2-Year Treasury Yield
Average Hourly Earnings Growth is currently 3.8% (down -0.2%). 2-Year Treasury Yield is currently 3.7% (down -0.3%).
| Metric | Average Hourly Earnings Growth | 2-Year Treasury Yield |
|---|---|---|
| Current value | 3.8% | 3.7% |
| Previous reading | 4% | 3.99% |
| Change | -0.2% | -0.3% |
| Trend | down | down |
| Frequency | Monthly | Daily |
| Source | Bureau of Labor Statistics | U.S. Treasury |
| Last updated | 2026-04-04 | 2026-04-04 |
| Category | employment | rates |
What Average Hourly Earnings Growth measures
Average hourly earnings measures the year-over-year percentage change in wages for all private-sector employees. It is a key indicator of labor cost pressures and consumer spending power.
Wage growth at 3.8% year-over-year outpaces current inflation, meaning workers are gaining real purchasing power. For executives, this signals continued pressure on labor budgets — compensation packages must grow to retain talent. However, wage growth moderating from 4%+ suggests the worst of the post-pandemic wage spiral may be easing.
What 2-Year Treasury Yield measures
The 2-year Treasury yield reflects market expectations for short-term interest rates over the next two years. It is the most sensitive government bond to Federal Reserve policy changes.
The 2-year yield at 3.71% — well below the current fed funds rate of 4.50% — signals that markets expect the Fed to cut rates. The wider this gap, the more aggressively markets expect easing. For CFOs, short-term borrowing costs may decline sooner than long-term rates, favoring shorter-duration financing strategies.
Frequently asked
Average Hourly Earnings Growth is currently 3.8%, down -0.2% from the previous reading. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, updated monthly.
2-Year Treasury Yield is currently 3.7%, down -0.3% from the previous reading. Source: U.S. Treasury, updated daily.
Wage growth at 3.8% year-over-year outpaces current inflation, meaning workers are gaining real purchasing power. For executives, this signals continued pressure on labor budgets — compensation packag The 2-year yield at 3.71% — well below the current fed funds rate of 4.50% — signals that markets expect the Fed to cut rates. The wider this gap, the more aggressively markets expect easing. For CFOs