Consumer Confidence Index vs Retail Sales (Monthly Change)

How These Two Indicators Relate

Both Consumer Confidence and Retail Sales sit inside the consumer category, so they tend to share underlying drivers. The difference between them often carries more information than either level on its own.

Both readings are currently moving lower. Consumer Confidence has moved lower -5.40 since the prior release; Retail Sales has moved lower -1.4%. When two related indicators decline together, the move usually reflects a real economic shift rather than measurement noise.

What Consumer Confidence Index Measures

The Consumer Confidence Index measures how optimistic or pessimistic consumers are about the economy and their personal financial situation. It is based on a monthly survey of 5,000 U.S. households by The Conference Board.

Consumer confidence has dropped to 92.9 — the lowest in over a year and the fourth consecutive monthly decline. Readings below 100 indicate more pessimism than optimism. For executives, declining confidence is a leading indicator of reduced consumer spending. When consumers feel less confident, they delay major purchases (cars, appliances, vacations), increase savings rates, and become more price-sensitive. Retailers and consumer-facing businesses should prepare for softer demand.

Methodology: The Conference Board surveys 5,000 households monthly, asking about current business conditions, current employment conditions, expected business conditions in 6 months, expected employment in 6 months, and expected total family income in 6 months. The index is benchmarked to 1985 = 100. Source: The Conference Board (series CONCCONF).

What Retail Sales (Monthly Change) Measures

Retail sales measures the total receipts of retail stores, covering purchases of durable and nondurable goods. It is a timely indicator of consumer demand and is closely watched for signs of economic strength or weakness.

Retail sales declined 0.2% in the latest report, following a weak January (-0.9%). Excluding autos and gas, the picture is slightly better. For executives in retail and consumer goods, the data suggests consumers are pulling back on discretionary purchases while maintaining spending on essentials. E-commerce continues to gain share of total retail sales.

Methodology: The Census Bureau surveys approximately 5,500 retail firms monthly. The advance estimate is released about two weeks after the reference month. Data covers stores but not services (restaurants are included, but healthcare, housing, and financial services are not). Results are seasonally adjusted. Source: U.S. Census Bureau (series RSXFS).

How These Comparisons Are Built

Each pairwise comparison page is statically generated from the live indicator dataset — values, trends, and source links are pre-rendered into HTML at build time. When the underlying dataset refreshes (each indicator on its own publication schedule), the comparison page regenerates automatically. ExecBolt does not estimate, model, or interpolate any reading; every value comes from the publishing agency’s primary release. For the full sourcing approach, citation format, and known limitations, see the methodology page.

For plain-language guides to the concepts behind Consumer Confidence and Retail Sales, see the learn library. For tools that translate macro readings into business outputs (DCF, runway, break-even), see the calculators page. Authoritative external context comes from the Federal Reserve’s FRED database, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the SEC EDGAR system.

Frequently Asked Questions