Consumer Price Index (CPI) — Year-over-Year vs Federal Funds Rate (Target Range Upper Bound)
Consumer Price Index (CPI) — Year-over-Year is currently 2.8% (down -0.1%). Federal Funds Rate (Target Range Upper Bound) is currently 4.5% (flat 0.0%).
| Metric | Consumer Price Index (CPI) — Year-over-Year | Federal Funds Rate (Target Range Upper Bound) |
|---|---|---|
| Current value | 2.8% | 4.5% |
| Previous reading | 2.9% | 4.5% |
| Change | -0.1% | 0.0% |
| Trend | down | flat |
| Frequency | Monthly | As Announced |
| Source | Bureau of Labor Statistics | Federal Reserve |
| Last updated | 2026-03-12 | 2026-03-19 |
| Category | inflation | rates |
What Consumer Price Index (CPI) — Year-over-Year measures
The Consumer Price Index measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of goods and services. The year-over-year change is the most commonly cited measure of inflation.
Inflation at 2.8% remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target but has moderated significantly from the 2022 peak of 9.1%. For executives, this means input costs are still rising faster than the Fed's comfort zone, but the pricing environment is stabilizing. Companies with strong pricing power can pass through cost increases; those in competitive markets face margin pressure. The Fed is unlikely to cut rates aggressively until CPI moves closer to 2%.
What Federal Funds Rate (Target Range Upper Bound) measures
The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight. Set by the Federal Reserve's FOMC, it is the most important interest rate in the world — influencing everything from mortgage rates to corporate borrowing costs to the value of the dollar.
The Fed has held rates at 4.25-4.50% since December 2024, pausing after three cuts. For executives, this means borrowing costs remain elevated: corporate bond yields, commercial real estate financing, and revolving credit all price off the fed funds rate. The 'higher for longer' stance means capital-intensive projects need higher return hurdles. Companies with strong cash positions have an advantage over those reliant on debt financing.
Frequently asked
Consumer Price Index (CPI) — Year-over-Year is currently 2.8%, down -0.1% from the previous reading. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, updated monthly.
Federal Funds Rate (Target Range Upper Bound) is currently 4.5%, flat 0.0% from the previous reading. Source: Federal Reserve, updated as announced.
Inflation at 2.8% remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target but has moderated significantly from the 2022 peak of 9.1%. For executives, this means input costs are still rising faster than the Fed' The Fed has held rates at 4.25-4.50% since December 2024, pausing after three cuts. For executives, this means borrowing costs remain elevated: corporate bond yields, commercial real estate financing,