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Nominal GDP (Current Dollars) vs Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y)

Nominal GDP (Current Dollars) is currently 29.72T (up +0.4T). Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y) is currently 0.4pp (up +0.1pp).

MetricNominal GDP (Current Dollars)Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y)
Current value29.72T0.4pp
Previous reading29.35T0.26pp
Change+0.4T+0.1pp
Trendupup
FrequencyQuarterlyDaily
SourceBureau of Economic AnalysisFederal Reserve
Last updated2026-03-272026-04-04
Categorygrowthrates

What Nominal GDP (Current Dollars) measures

Nominal GDP measures the total dollar value of all goods and services produced in the United States at current market prices, without adjusting for inflation. It represents the raw size of the economy.

Nominal GDP shows the absolute size of the U.S. economy in current dollars. At nearly $30 trillion, the U.S. remains the world's largest economy. Executives use nominal GDP to size markets, estimate total addressable revenue, and benchmark company performance against the broader economy. Revenue growing faster than nominal GDP means you're gaining market share.

What Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y) measures

The yield curve spread measures the difference between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields. When positive (normal), longer-term bonds pay more. When negative (inverted), it historically signals recession risk.

The yield curve has un-inverted to +0.41 percentage points after being inverted for much of 2023-2024. Historically, the yield curve un-inverting and steepening often occurs just before a recession starts — the recession signal is not the inversion itself, but the re-steepening. For executives, this is a watch-closely moment: the economy may be entering a transition period.

Frequently asked

What is Nominal GDP (Current Dollars) right now?

Nominal GDP (Current Dollars) is currently 29.72T, up +0.4T from the previous reading. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, updated quarterly.

What is Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y) right now?

Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y) is currently 0.4pp, up +0.1pp from the previous reading. Source: Federal Reserve, updated daily.

How are Nominal GDP (Current Dollars) and Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y) related?

Nominal GDP shows the absolute size of the U.S. economy in current dollars. At nearly $30 trillion, the U.S. remains the world's largest economy. Executives use nominal GDP to size markets, estimate t The yield curve has un-inverted to +0.41 percentage points after being inverted for much of 2023-2024. Historically, the yield curve un-inverting and steepening often occurs just before a recession st