Updated May 2026 · Federal Reserve
Rates Indicator
Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y)
Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y) is a interest rate and yield indicator central to monetary policy and corporate borrowing sourced from Federal Reserve, updated daily.
Historical Trend
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | 0.4pp |
| 2026-03-28 | 0.3pp |
| 2026-03-14 | 0.3pp |
| 2026-03-07 | 0.3pp |
| 2026-02 | 0.2pp |
| 2026-01 | 0.3pp |
| 2025-12 | 0.3pp |
| 2025-11 | 0.1pp |
| 2025-10 | 0.2pp |
Reading the Current Print
At 0.4pp, the current reading sits in the upper portion of the recent historical range for this series. Operators should treat that as elevated rather than normal — sustained readings at this level usually have meaningful policy or business-cycle implications.
Yield Curve moved from 0.26pp to 0.4pp since the prior daily release — a sharp move higher of +0.1pp. Upward moves on rates indicators usually carry directional information about the cycle; pair this reading with related series before drawing strong conclusions.
Because this series is published daily, traders and analysts often watch tick-by-tick changes. For operators, the more useful frame is the rolling weekly or monthly average — daily prints carry too much noise to drive operating decisions on their own.
What This Means for Business
The yield curve has un-inverted to +0.41 percentage points after being inverted for much of 2023-2024. Historically, the yield curve un-inverting and steepening often occurs just before a recession starts — the recession signal is not the inversion itself, but the re-steepening. For executives, this is a watch-closely moment: the economy may be entering a transition period.
For deeper context on how Yield Curve fits into the broader macro picture, see the learn library; for live cross-checks against related series, browse the full indicators dashboard; for tools that translate the reading into business outputs (DCF discount rates, runway projections), see the calculators page. Authoritative external context is available at the Federal Reserve’s FRED database, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the SEC EDGAR system for company-level filings.
About Yield Curve
The yield curve spread measures the difference between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields. When positive (normal), longer-term bonds pay more. When negative (inverted), it historically signals recession risk.
Methodology
Simply calculated as: 10-Year Treasury Yield minus 2-Year Treasury Yield. A positive spread is 'normal' (investors demand more for lending longer). An inverted curve (negative spread) has preceded every U.S. recession since 1955, with only one false signal.
The series is published by Federal Reserve under series identifier T10Y2Y. ExecBolt does not estimate, model, or interpolate this value — every reading on this page is pulled directly from the publishing agency’s primary release. For full sourcing and citation guidance, see the methodology page.
Related Indicators
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y) right now?
Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y) is currently 0.4pp, up +0.1pp from the previous daily reading. Source: Federal Reserve, series T10Y2Y, last updated 2026-04-04.
How is Yield Curve calculated?
Simply calculated as: 10-Year Treasury Yield minus 2-Year Treasury Yield. A positive spread is 'normal' (investors demand more for lending longer). An inverted curve (negative spread) has preceded every U.S. recession since 1955, with only one false signal.
Where can I verify this number?
Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y) is published by Federal Reserve. The primary release is available at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y; the Federal Reserve's FRED database hosts the historical series and provides API access for programmatic verification.
Is an inverted yield curve still a reliable recession predictor?
The yield curve has inverted before every U.S. recession since 1955, with a lead time of 6-24 months. However, it produced a false signal in the mid-1990s. The current situation is nuanced: the curve was deeply inverted in 2023-2024 but the economy avoided recession. Some economists argue quantitative easing distorted the signal. The re-steepening phase, which we're in now, has historically been when recessions actually begin.
What causes the yield curve to invert?
Inversion occurs when short-term rates exceed long-term rates, typically because the Fed has raised short-term rates to fight inflation while long-term rates decline on expectations of future economic weakness. It reflects the market's belief that the Fed will eventually need to cut rates due to an economic slowdown.