Growth Indicator
Real GDP Growth Rate
Updated 2026-03-27 · Quarterly · Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis · Next release: 2026-06-26
Historical Trend
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-Q1 | 2.4% |
| 2025-Q4 | 3.1% |
| 2025-Q3 | 2.9% |
| 2025-Q2 | 2.6% |
| 2025-Q1 | 2.1% |
| 2024-Q4 | 2.3% |
| 2024-Q3 | 2.8% |
| 2024-Q2 | 3.0% |
| 2024-Q1 | 1.4% |
What This Means for Business
GDP growth is the single most important measure of economic health. A rate above 2% signals healthy expansion; below 1% raises recession concerns. For executives, GDP growth directly affects consumer demand, business investment, and hiring plans. The current 2.4% growth rate represents moderate expansion — strong enough to sustain corporate earnings but below the 3%+ pace that typically drives aggressive hiring.
About GDP Growth
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced in the United States. The growth rate shows how fast the economy is expanding or contracting on an annualized quarterly basis.
Methodology
The Bureau of Economic Analysis calculates GDP using the expenditure approach: GDP = Consumer Spending + Business Investment + Government Spending + Net Exports. The 'real' figure adjusts for inflation using chain-weighted price indices. The annualized rate projects what annual growth would be if the quarterly pace continued for a full year.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is a healthy GDP growth rate?
For the U.S. economy, a GDP growth rate between 2% and 3% is generally considered healthy and sustainable. Growth above 3% is strong but may trigger inflation concerns, while growth below 1% signals economic weakness. Negative growth for two consecutive quarters is the informal definition of a recession.
How does GDP growth affect the stock market?
GDP growth and stock market performance are positively correlated over time, though the relationship is not linear. Strong GDP growth supports corporate earnings and stock prices. However, unexpectedly strong GDP can also trigger fears of Fed rate hikes, which may temporarily depress markets. The market often reacts more to GDP surprises than to absolute levels.
When is the next GDP report released?
GDP data is released quarterly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, with three estimates: advance (one month after quarter end), second estimate (two months after), and third/final estimate (three months after). The advance estimate receives the most market attention.