Industrial Production Index (Monthly Change)

At -0.3%, the current reading sits in the middle of the recent historical range for this series. The reading is consistent with ongoing trend conditions rather than a clear inflection point.

Industrial Production moved from 0.7% to -0.3% since the prior monthly release — a sharp move lower of -1.0%. Downward moves on growth indicators usually carry directional information about the cycle; pair this reading with related series before drawing strong conclusions.

Monthly publication makes this a primary cyclical indicator. Each release moves markets and feeds into Federal Reserve policy debate. Watch year-over-year change rather than month-over-month for the cleanest read on direction; the headline monthly print often gets revised in subsequent releases.

Industrial production fell 0.3% in March after strong February gains. Manufacturing, which accounts for about 75% of the index, has been volatile as companies adjust inventory levels. For executives in manufacturing and industrial sectors, the mixed readings suggest uneven demand rather than a clear downturn. The services sector remains the primary driver of U.S. economic growth.

For deeper context on how Industrial Production fits into the broader macro picture, see the learn library; for live cross-checks against related series, browse the full indicators dashboard; for tools that translate the reading into business outputs (DCF discount rates, runway projections), see the calculators page. Authoritative external context is available at the Federal Reserve’s FRED database, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the SEC EDGAR system for company-level filings.

The Industrial Production Index measures the real output of manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. It is a coincident indicator that moves with the business cycle and reflects the goods-producing sector of the economy.

Methodology

The Federal Reserve Board compiles data from various sources including industry surveys, utility output, and Census Bureau manufacturing reports. The index is set to 100 at a base year (currently 2017) and seasonally adjusted. Capacity utilization is calculated by comparing actual production to estimated maximum sustainable output.

The series is published by Federal Reserve under series identifier INDPRO. ExecBolt does not estimate, model, or interpolate this value — every reading on this page is pulled directly from the publishing agency’s primary release. For full sourcing and citation guidance, see the methodology page.