Industrial Production Index (Monthly Change) vs PCE Price Index (Year-over-Year)
Industrial Production Index (Monthly Change) is currently -0.3% (down -1.0%). PCE Price Index (Year-over-Year) is currently 2.5% (down -0.1%).
| Metric | Industrial Production Index (Monthly Change) | PCE Price Index (Year-over-Year) |
|---|---|---|
| Current value | -0.3% | 2.5% |
| Previous reading | 0.7% | 2.6% |
| Change | -1.0% | -0.1% |
| Trend | down | down |
| Frequency | Monthly | Monthly |
| Source | Federal Reserve | Bureau of Economic Analysis |
| Last updated | 2026-03-18 | 2026-03-28 |
| Category | growth | inflation |
What Industrial Production Index (Monthly Change) measures
The Industrial Production Index measures the real output of manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. It is a coincident indicator that moves with the business cycle and reflects the goods-producing sector of the economy.
Industrial production fell 0.3% in March after strong February gains. Manufacturing, which accounts for about 75% of the index, has been volatile as companies adjust inventory levels. For executives in manufacturing and industrial sectors, the mixed readings suggest uneven demand rather than a clear downturn. The services sector remains the primary driver of U.S. economic growth.
What PCE Price Index (Year-over-Year) measures
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure. It tracks prices of goods and services consumed by households and adjusts its basket dynamically as consumers shift spending patterns.
PCE at 2.5% is closer to the Fed's 2% target than CPI, giving the Fed more room to consider rate cuts. The PCE tends to run 0.3-0.5 points below CPI because it accounts for consumer substitution (switching to cheaper alternatives when prices rise). For executives, the PCE trajectory suggests inflation is on a downward path, which should eventually lead to lower borrowing costs.
Frequently asked
Industrial Production Index (Monthly Change) is currently -0.3%, down -1.0% from the previous reading. Source: Federal Reserve, updated monthly.
PCE Price Index (Year-over-Year) is currently 2.5%, down -0.1% from the previous reading. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, updated monthly.
Industrial production fell 0.3% in March after strong February gains. Manufacturing, which accounts for about 75% of the index, has been volatile as companies adjust inventory levels. For executives i PCE at 2.5% is closer to the Fed's 2% target than CPI, giving the Fed more room to consider rate cuts. The PCE tends to run 0.3-0.5 points below CPI because it accounts for consumer substitution (swit