PCE Price Index (Year-over-Year) vs Retail Sales (Monthly Change)
PCE Price Index (Year-over-Year) is currently 2.5% (down -0.1%). Retail Sales (Monthly Change) is currently -0.2% (down -0.4%).
| Metric | PCE Price Index (Year-over-Year) | Retail Sales (Monthly Change) |
|---|---|---|
| Current value | 2.5% | -0.2% |
| Previous reading | 2.6% | 0.2% |
| Change | -0.1% | -0.4% |
| Trend | down | down |
| Frequency | Monthly | Monthly |
| Source | Bureau of Economic Analysis | U.S. Census Bureau |
| Last updated | 2026-03-28 | 2026-03-17 |
| Category | inflation | consumer |
What PCE Price Index (Year-over-Year) measures
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure. It tracks prices of goods and services consumed by households and adjusts its basket dynamically as consumers shift spending patterns.
PCE at 2.5% is closer to the Fed's 2% target than CPI, giving the Fed more room to consider rate cuts. The PCE tends to run 0.3-0.5 points below CPI because it accounts for consumer substitution (switching to cheaper alternatives when prices rise). For executives, the PCE trajectory suggests inflation is on a downward path, which should eventually lead to lower borrowing costs.
What Retail Sales (Monthly Change) measures
Retail sales measures the total receipts of retail stores, covering purchases of durable and nondurable goods. It is a timely indicator of consumer demand and is closely watched for signs of economic strength or weakness.
Retail sales declined 0.2% in the latest report, following a weak January (-0.9%). Excluding autos and gas, the picture is slightly better. For executives in retail and consumer goods, the data suggests consumers are pulling back on discretionary purchases while maintaining spending on essentials. E-commerce continues to gain share of total retail sales.
Frequently asked
PCE Price Index (Year-over-Year) is currently 2.5%, down -0.1% from the previous reading. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, updated monthly.
Retail Sales (Monthly Change) is currently -0.2%, down -0.4% from the previous reading. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, updated monthly.
PCE at 2.5% is closer to the Fed's 2% target than CPI, giving the Fed more room to consider rate cuts. The PCE tends to run 0.3-0.5 points below CPI because it accounts for consumer substitution (swit Retail sales declined 0.2% in the latest report, following a weak January (-0.9%). Excluding autos and gas, the picture is slightly better. For executives in retail and consumer goods, the data sugges