Producer Price Index (PPI) — Year-over-Year vs Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y)
Producer Price Index (PPI) — Year-over-Year is currently 2.7% (down -0.5%). Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y) is currently 0.4pp (up +0.1pp).
| Metric | Producer Price Index (PPI) — Year-over-Year | Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y) |
|---|---|---|
| Current value | 2.7% | 0.4pp |
| Previous reading | 3.2% | 0.26pp |
| Change | -0.5% | +0.1pp |
| Trend | down | up |
| Frequency | Monthly | Daily |
| Source | Bureau of Labor Statistics | Federal Reserve |
| Last updated | 2026-03-13 | 2026-04-04 |
| Category | inflation | rates |
What Producer Price Index (PPI) — Year-over-Year measures
The Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. It is a leading indicator of consumer inflation — rising producer costs eventually get passed to consumers.
PPI declining to 2.7% from 3.2% signals easing upstream cost pressures. For executives, falling producer prices suggest input cost relief is coming — raw materials, components, and wholesale goods are becoming cheaper relative to recent months. This is bullish for profit margins if selling prices remain stable.
What Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y) measures
The yield curve spread measures the difference between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields. When positive (normal), longer-term bonds pay more. When negative (inverted), it historically signals recession risk.
The yield curve has un-inverted to +0.41 percentage points after being inverted for much of 2023-2024. Historically, the yield curve un-inverting and steepening often occurs just before a recession starts — the recession signal is not the inversion itself, but the re-steepening. For executives, this is a watch-closely moment: the economy may be entering a transition period.
Frequently asked
Producer Price Index (PPI) — Year-over-Year is currently 2.7%, down -0.5% from the previous reading. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, updated monthly.
Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y) is currently 0.4pp, up +0.1pp from the previous reading. Source: Federal Reserve, updated daily.
PPI declining to 2.7% from 3.2% signals easing upstream cost pressures. For executives, falling producer prices suggest input cost relief is coming — raw materials, components, and wholesale goods are The yield curve has un-inverted to +0.41 percentage points after being inverted for much of 2023-2024. Historically, the yield curve un-inverting and steepening often occurs just before a recession st