Retail Sales (Monthly Change) vs 2-Year Treasury Yield
Retail Sales (Monthly Change) is currently -0.2% (down -0.4%). 2-Year Treasury Yield is currently 3.7% (down -0.3%).
| Metric | Retail Sales (Monthly Change) | 2-Year Treasury Yield |
|---|---|---|
| Current value | -0.2% | 3.7% |
| Previous reading | 0.2% | 3.99% |
| Change | -0.4% | -0.3% |
| Trend | down | down |
| Frequency | Monthly | Daily |
| Source | U.S. Census Bureau | U.S. Treasury |
| Last updated | 2026-03-17 | 2026-04-04 |
| Category | consumer | rates |
What Retail Sales (Monthly Change) measures
Retail sales measures the total receipts of retail stores, covering purchases of durable and nondurable goods. It is a timely indicator of consumer demand and is closely watched for signs of economic strength or weakness.
Retail sales declined 0.2% in the latest report, following a weak January (-0.9%). Excluding autos and gas, the picture is slightly better. For executives in retail and consumer goods, the data suggests consumers are pulling back on discretionary purchases while maintaining spending on essentials. E-commerce continues to gain share of total retail sales.
What 2-Year Treasury Yield measures
The 2-year Treasury yield reflects market expectations for short-term interest rates over the next two years. It is the most sensitive government bond to Federal Reserve policy changes.
The 2-year yield at 3.71% — well below the current fed funds rate of 4.50% — signals that markets expect the Fed to cut rates. The wider this gap, the more aggressively markets expect easing. For CFOs, short-term borrowing costs may decline sooner than long-term rates, favoring shorter-duration financing strategies.
Frequently asked
Retail Sales (Monthly Change) is currently -0.2%, down -0.4% from the previous reading. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, updated monthly.
2-Year Treasury Yield is currently 3.7%, down -0.3% from the previous reading. Source: U.S. Treasury, updated daily.
Retail sales declined 0.2% in the latest report, following a weak January (-0.9%). Excluding autos and gas, the picture is slightly better. For executives in retail and consumer goods, the data sugges The 2-year yield at 3.71% — well below the current fed funds rate of 4.50% — signals that markets expect the Fed to cut rates. The wider this gap, the more aggressively markets expect easing. For CFOs