S&P 500 Price-to-Earnings Ratio (Forward) vs Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y)
S&P 500 Price-to-Earnings Ratio (Forward) is currently 20.3x (down -1.20). Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y) is currently 0.4pp (up +0.1pp).
| Metric | S&P 500 Price-to-Earnings Ratio (Forward) | Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y) |
|---|---|---|
| Current value | 20.3x | 0.4pp |
| Previous reading | 21.5x | 0.26pp |
| Change | -1.20 | +0.1pp |
| Trend | down | up |
| Frequency | Weekly | Daily |
| Source | S&P Global | Federal Reserve |
| Last updated | 2026-04-04 | 2026-04-04 |
| Category | growth | rates |
What S&P 500 Price-to-Earnings Ratio (Forward) measures
The forward price-to-earnings ratio measures the S&P 500 index price relative to expected earnings per share over the next 12 months. It is the most widely used valuation metric for the U.S. stock market.
The S&P 500 forward P/E at 20.3x has declined from its recent highs but remains above the 25-year average of approximately 16.5x. Markets are pricing in solid earnings growth but are no longer at 'euphoric' valuations. For executives evaluating M&A, stock compensation, or capital market activity, current valuations suggest a market that is fairly valued to modestly expensive — not cheap, but not at bubble levels either.
What Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y) measures
The yield curve spread measures the difference between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields. When positive (normal), longer-term bonds pay more. When negative (inverted), it historically signals recession risk.
The yield curve has un-inverted to +0.41 percentage points after being inverted for much of 2023-2024. Historically, the yield curve un-inverting and steepening often occurs just before a recession starts — the recession signal is not the inversion itself, but the re-steepening. For executives, this is a watch-closely moment: the economy may be entering a transition period.
Frequently asked
S&P 500 Price-to-Earnings Ratio (Forward) is currently 20.3x, down -1.20 from the previous reading. Source: S&P Global, updated weekly.
Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y) is currently 0.4pp, up +0.1pp from the previous reading. Source: Federal Reserve, updated daily.
The S&P 500 forward P/E at 20.3x has declined from its recent highs but remains above the 25-year average of approximately 16.5x. Markets are pricing in solid earnings growth but are no longer at 'eup The yield curve has un-inverted to +0.41 percentage points after being inverted for much of 2023-2024. Historically, the yield curve un-inverting and steepening often occurs just before a recession st