2-Year Treasury Yield vs Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y)
2-Year Treasury Yield is currently 3.7% (down -0.3%). Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y) is currently 0.4pp (up +0.1pp).
| Metric | 2-Year Treasury Yield | Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y) |
|---|---|---|
| Current value | 3.7% | 0.4pp |
| Previous reading | 3.99% | 0.26pp |
| Change | -0.3% | +0.1pp |
| Trend | down | up |
| Frequency | Daily | Daily |
| Source | U.S. Treasury | Federal Reserve |
| Last updated | 2026-04-04 | 2026-04-04 |
| Category | rates | rates |
What 2-Year Treasury Yield measures
The 2-year Treasury yield reflects market expectations for short-term interest rates over the next two years. It is the most sensitive government bond to Federal Reserve policy changes.
The 2-year yield at 3.71% — well below the current fed funds rate of 4.50% — signals that markets expect the Fed to cut rates. The wider this gap, the more aggressively markets expect easing. For CFOs, short-term borrowing costs may decline sooner than long-term rates, favoring shorter-duration financing strategies.
What Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y) measures
The yield curve spread measures the difference between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields. When positive (normal), longer-term bonds pay more. When negative (inverted), it historically signals recession risk.
The yield curve has un-inverted to +0.41 percentage points after being inverted for much of 2023-2024. Historically, the yield curve un-inverting and steepening often occurs just before a recession starts — the recession signal is not the inversion itself, but the re-steepening. For executives, this is a watch-closely moment: the economy may be entering a transition period.
Frequently asked
2-Year Treasury Yield is currently 3.7%, down -0.3% from the previous reading. Source: U.S. Treasury, updated daily.
Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y) is currently 0.4pp, up +0.1pp from the previous reading. Source: Federal Reserve, updated daily.
The 2-year yield at 3.71% — well below the current fed funds rate of 4.50% — signals that markets expect the Fed to cut rates. The wider this gap, the more aggressively markets expect easing. For CFOs The yield curve has un-inverted to +0.41 percentage points after being inverted for much of 2023-2024. Historically, the yield curve un-inverting and steepening often occurs just before a recession st