Employment
What Is the Jobs Report? Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment & Wages
The monthly jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) is the most market-moving economic release. Learn how to read it, what the numbers mean, and why revisions matter.
The monthly Employment Situation report — commonly called the "jobs report" — is released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on the first Friday of each month. It's widely considered the single most market-moving economic data release.
What the Report Includes
The jobs report combines two separate surveys. The Establishment Survey polls approximately 131,000 businesses and government agencies (covering about 670,000 worksites) to determine nonfarm payroll employment, hours worked, and average hourly earnings. The Household Survey contacts about 60,000 households to calculate the unemployment rate, labor force participation, and demographic employment breakdowns.
Key Numbers to Watch
Nonfarm payrolls (headline number): The net change in jobs. Above 200K/month is considered strong; below 100K signals slowing. The unemployment rate: The percentage of the labor force actively seeking work. Below 4% is considered tight. Average hourly earnings: Year-over-year wage growth. Above 4% signals inflationary wage pressure. Labor force participation: The percentage of working-age adults either employed or actively looking for work.
Why Revisions Matter
Each month's payroll figure is revised twice in subsequent reports. These revisions can be substantial — sometimes 50,000-100,000 jobs in either direction. The trend across 3-6 months is more reliable than any single month's headline. Pay attention to the revision pattern: consistent downward revisions suggest the labor market is weaker than initially reported.
Market Impact
The jobs report regularly causes 0.5-2% moves in stock indices and sharp moves in Treasury yields and the dollar. A strong report (high payrolls, low unemployment) is generally positive for stocks but can push yields higher if it delays expected Fed rate cuts. A weak report does the opposite.
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Primary Sources
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a strong jobs report?
In the current economic environment, nonfarm payroll gains above 200,000 per month are considered strong. Gains between 100,000-200,000 are moderate, and below 100,000 signals labor market cooling. However, context matters — population growth requires roughly 100,000 new jobs per month just to keep pace. The unemployment rate, wage growth, and revisions to prior months provide a more complete picture than the headline number alone.
Why does the jobs report move the stock market?
The jobs report affects the market through two channels. First, employment directly drives consumer spending (68% of GDP). Second, job market strength influences Federal Reserve rate decisions. A very strong report can actually hurt stocks if it suggests the Fed will keep rates higher for longer. Weak reports can boost stocks if they signal rate cuts ahead. The market reacts most to surprises — data that deviates from consensus expectations.
What time is the jobs report released?
The BLS releases the Employment Situation report at 8:30 AM Eastern Time on the first Friday of each month. The data covers the prior month (e.g., the March report covers February employment). The reference period is the pay period including the 12th of the month.