Average Hourly Earnings Growth vs Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y)
Average Hourly Earnings Growth is currently 3.8% (down -0.2%). Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y) is currently 0.4pp (up +0.1pp).
| Metric | Average Hourly Earnings Growth | Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y) |
|---|---|---|
| Current value | 3.8% | 0.4pp |
| Previous reading | 4% | 0.26pp |
| Change | -0.2% | +0.1pp |
| Trend | down | up |
| Frequency | Monthly | Daily |
| Source | Bureau of Labor Statistics | Federal Reserve |
| Last updated | 2026-04-04 | 2026-04-04 |
| Category | employment | rates |
What Average Hourly Earnings Growth measures
Average hourly earnings measures the year-over-year percentage change in wages for all private-sector employees. It is a key indicator of labor cost pressures and consumer spending power.
Wage growth at 3.8% year-over-year outpaces current inflation, meaning workers are gaining real purchasing power. For executives, this signals continued pressure on labor budgets — compensation packages must grow to retain talent. However, wage growth moderating from 4%+ suggests the worst of the post-pandemic wage spiral may be easing.
What Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y) measures
The yield curve spread measures the difference between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields. When positive (normal), longer-term bonds pay more. When negative (inverted), it historically signals recession risk.
The yield curve has un-inverted to +0.41 percentage points after being inverted for much of 2023-2024. Historically, the yield curve un-inverting and steepening often occurs just before a recession starts — the recession signal is not the inversion itself, but the re-steepening. For executives, this is a watch-closely moment: the economy may be entering a transition period.
Frequently asked
Average Hourly Earnings Growth is currently 3.8%, down -0.2% from the previous reading. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, updated monthly.
Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y) is currently 0.4pp, up +0.1pp from the previous reading. Source: Federal Reserve, updated daily.
Wage growth at 3.8% year-over-year outpaces current inflation, meaning workers are gaining real purchasing power. For executives, this signals continued pressure on labor budgets — compensation packag The yield curve has un-inverted to +0.41 percentage points after being inverted for much of 2023-2024. Historically, the yield curve un-inverting and steepening often occurs just before a recession st