Existing Home Sales (Annualized) vs Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y)

What Existing Home Sales (Annualized) measures

Existing home sales measures the number of completed sales of previously owned homes, expressed as a seasonally adjusted annual rate. It accounts for approximately 85-90% of all home sales in the U.S.

At 4.26 million, existing home sales remain well below the 2021 peak of 6.1 million. The 'lock-in effect' — where homeowners refuse to give up sub-4% mortgages — continues to constrain inventory. For executives, this suppressed transaction volume affects real estate commissions, moving services, home improvement spending, and mortgage origination revenue across the industry.

What Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y) measures

The yield curve spread measures the difference between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields. When positive (normal), longer-term bonds pay more. When negative (inverted), it historically signals recession risk.

The yield curve has un-inverted to +0.41 percentage points after being inverted for much of 2023-2024. Historically, the yield curve un-inverting and steepening often occurs just before a recession starts — the recession signal is not the inversion itself, but the re-steepening. For executives, this is a watch-closely moment: the economy may be entering a transition period.

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