Industrial Production Index (Monthly Change) vs Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y)
Industrial Production Index (Monthly Change) is currently -0.3% (down -1.0%). Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y) is currently 0.4pp (up +0.1pp).
| Metric | Industrial Production Index (Monthly Change) | Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y) |
|---|---|---|
| Current value | -0.3% | 0.4pp |
| Previous reading | 0.7% | 0.26pp |
| Change | -1.0% | +0.1pp |
| Trend | down | up |
| Frequency | Monthly | Daily |
| Source | Federal Reserve | Federal Reserve |
| Last updated | 2026-03-18 | 2026-04-04 |
| Category | growth | rates |
What Industrial Production Index (Monthly Change) measures
The Industrial Production Index measures the real output of manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. It is a coincident indicator that moves with the business cycle and reflects the goods-producing sector of the economy.
Industrial production fell 0.3% in March after strong February gains. Manufacturing, which accounts for about 75% of the index, has been volatile as companies adjust inventory levels. For executives in manufacturing and industrial sectors, the mixed readings suggest uneven demand rather than a clear downturn. The services sector remains the primary driver of U.S. economic growth.
What Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y) measures
The yield curve spread measures the difference between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields. When positive (normal), longer-term bonds pay more. When negative (inverted), it historically signals recession risk.
The yield curve has un-inverted to +0.41 percentage points after being inverted for much of 2023-2024. Historically, the yield curve un-inverting and steepening often occurs just before a recession starts — the recession signal is not the inversion itself, but the re-steepening. For executives, this is a watch-closely moment: the economy may be entering a transition period.
Frequently asked
Industrial Production Index (Monthly Change) is currently -0.3%, down -1.0% from the previous reading. Source: Federal Reserve, updated monthly.
Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y) is currently 0.4pp, up +0.1pp from the previous reading. Source: Federal Reserve, updated daily.
Industrial production fell 0.3% in March after strong February gains. Manufacturing, which accounts for about 75% of the index, has been volatile as companies adjust inventory levels. For executives i The yield curve has un-inverted to +0.41 percentage points after being inverted for much of 2023-2024. Historically, the yield curve un-inverting and steepening often occurs just before a recession st