Retail Sales (Monthly Change) vs Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y)
Retail Sales (Monthly Change) is currently -0.2% (down -0.4%). Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y) is currently 0.4pp (up +0.1pp).
| Metric | Retail Sales (Monthly Change) | Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y) |
|---|---|---|
| Current value | -0.2% | 0.4pp |
| Previous reading | 0.2% | 0.26pp |
| Change | -0.4% | +0.1pp |
| Trend | down | up |
| Frequency | Monthly | Daily |
| Source | U.S. Census Bureau | Federal Reserve |
| Last updated | 2026-03-17 | 2026-04-04 |
| Category | consumer | rates |
What Retail Sales (Monthly Change) measures
Retail sales measures the total receipts of retail stores, covering purchases of durable and nondurable goods. It is a timely indicator of consumer demand and is closely watched for signs of economic strength or weakness.
Retail sales declined 0.2% in the latest report, following a weak January (-0.9%). Excluding autos and gas, the picture is slightly better. For executives in retail and consumer goods, the data suggests consumers are pulling back on discretionary purchases while maintaining spending on essentials. E-commerce continues to gain share of total retail sales.
What Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y) measures
The yield curve spread measures the difference between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields. When positive (normal), longer-term bonds pay more. When negative (inverted), it historically signals recession risk.
The yield curve has un-inverted to +0.41 percentage points after being inverted for much of 2023-2024. Historically, the yield curve un-inverting and steepening often occurs just before a recession starts — the recession signal is not the inversion itself, but the re-steepening. For executives, this is a watch-closely moment: the economy may be entering a transition period.
Frequently asked
Retail Sales (Monthly Change) is currently -0.2%, down -0.4% from the previous reading. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, updated monthly.
Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y) is currently 0.4pp, up +0.1pp from the previous reading. Source: Federal Reserve, updated daily.
Retail sales declined 0.2% in the latest report, following a weak January (-0.9%). Excluding autos and gas, the picture is slightly better. For executives in retail and consumer goods, the data sugges The yield curve has un-inverted to +0.41 percentage points after being inverted for much of 2023-2024. Historically, the yield curve un-inverting and steepening often occurs just before a recession st