Updated May 2026 · Federal Reserve
What Is Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y)?
Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y) is currently at 0.5pp, down -0.0pp from the previous reading of 0.48pp. The series is published by Federal Reserve on a daily schedule, last updated 2026-05-28.
Current Reading
How to Read This Reading
0.5pp sits in the lower portion of the recent historical range for Yield Curve. The reading is depressed relative to recent norms; the open question is whether this is a near-term cyclical low or the start of a more persistent shift.
Yield Curve has moved lower from 0.48pp to 0.5pp since the prior daily release — a meaningful move of -0.0pp. Pair this with the related indicators below before drawing strong conclusions; isolated moves on a single release often look larger than they really are.
Interest-rate and yield indicators describe the cost of borrowing across the economy. The federal funds rate is set directly by the Federal Reserve; longer-term Treasury yields are set by the bond market and reflect investor expectations about future growth and inflation. See the FOMC for the current policy stance.
What Yield Curve Measures
The yield curve spread measures the difference between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields. When positive (normal), longer-term bonds pay more. When negative (inverted), it historically signals recession risk.
The yield curve has un-inverted to +0.41 percentage points after being inverted for much of 2023-2024. Historically, the yield curve un-inverting and steepening often occurs just before a recession starts — the recession signal is not the inversion itself, but the re-steepening. For executives, this is a watch-closely moment: the economy may be entering a transition period.
Methodology
Simply calculated as: 10-Year Treasury Yield minus 2-Year Treasury Yield. A positive spread is 'normal' (investors demand more for lending longer). An inverted curve (negative spread) has preceded every U.S. recession since 1955, with only one false signal.
ExecBolt does not estimate, model, or interpolate this value — every reading on this page is pulled directly from Federal Reserve (series T10Y2Y). For full sourcing standards and citation guidance, see the methodology page; for plain-language background on the underlying concept, see the learn library; for live cross-checks against related series, see the indicators dashboard.
| Detail | Value |
|---|---|
| Full name | Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y) |
| Source | Federal Reserve |
| Series ID | T10Y2Y |
| Frequency | Daily |
| Category | rates |
| Last updated | 2026-05-28 |
Related Indicators
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y) right now?
Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y) is currently at 0.5pp, down -0.0pp from the previous reading of 0.48pp. The series is published by Federal Reserve on a daily schedule, last updated 2026-05-28.
How is Yield Curve calculated?
Simply calculated as: 10-Year Treasury Yield minus 2-Year Treasury Yield. A positive spread is 'normal' (investors demand more for lending longer). An inverted curve (negative spread) has preceded every U.S. recession since 1955, with only one false signal.
What does Yield Curve mean for business?
The yield curve has un-inverted to +0.41 percentage points after being inverted for much of 2023-2024. Historically, the yield curve un-inverting and steepening often occurs just before a recession starts — the recession signal is not the inversion itself, but the re-steepening. For executives, this is a watch-closely moment: the economy may be entering a transition period.
How often is Yield Curve updated?
Yield Curve is published on a daily schedule by Federal Reserve. The most recent reading is dated 2026-05-28.
Where can I verify this number?
The primary source for Yield Curve Spread (10Y - 2Y) is Federal Reserve at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y (series T10Y2Y). The historical series is also archived at FRED at the St. Louis Fed and available via API for programmatic verification.